The short yet winding road to a military (counter)coup in Brazil

The past week will be reminded by Brazilian historians as the one when the political system did not contain the crisis and social disorder began to impose itself.

The disruption of the Brazilian crisis goes back to the presidential elections of 2015. Back then, President-elected D. Rouseff renovated its mandate with the majority of votes, in a clear message against any of the principles of a neoliberal economic agenda.

But at this time NSA and CIA were already prepared to give the financial establishment the power to impose its interests over locals. Privatization, fiscal contraction and monetary discipline should apply to everyone, not only to federal Government, but to state Governments too.

The result of intensive use of “lawfare” and corporate media prevailed over democracy and D. Rouseff was removed from the Presidency. In her place the Brazilian oligarchy placed the vice-president M. Temer, whose friends shared power in a “new Government” with ex-opposition leaders that had just lost the elections. An opposition supported by banks.

As soon as the ex-banker (Bank Boston) H. Meirelles sat on the chair of the Ministry of Economy, an incredibly aggressive agenda of “economic reforms” was rapidly presented to the Congress. Pension funds, workers’ rights, state owned companies (Petrobras), every possible areas of potential interest to bankers were put into “reform” priority.

The ruin of the Brazilian economy followed the instability of the political system just after the elections of 2015. Not only Petrobras was almost destroyed, but also all heavy construction sector, which accounted for a lot of economic activity in Brazil at that time.

Although unemployment rose to the roof, the “lawfare” strategy did not stop. It seems the financial interests did want to remove not only the workers party (PT), but also the Oligarchy from the Brazilian political core.

One of the key-figures to a political solution was killed in an aircraft “accident” circa one month ago. Among the victims, a Supreme Court judge that was responsible for several processes against Brazilian political leadership of all parties. A key figure that would stop or put gas on the fire of the political crisis.

Since then, the Vice-President has articulated a provisory political pact between the three powers (also Congress and Supreme Court), with the clear mission of putting an end to the investigations of political leaders from all parties.

The past week was marked by the disruption of social order in more than one Brazilian states (Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro). The economic bankruptcy of state governments led to a failure in payments of wages to public servants. Strikes on public infrastructure systems, including security, have opened the doors to social anarchy.

Together with people usually assembled in political manifestations there are actually few who bring disorder to the streets. These few are apparently brought to the ground by intelligence agencies. They use masks and can be well identified as out of laws. But nor the police, neither the Brazilian intelligence seem to notice.

Looking back to 1964, what brought the military coup to the scene was social disorder. At that time, Brazilian economic groups called the military to a coup with the objective of protecting their private properties. What caused social disorder was the disruption of political instability in the middle of an economic crisis.

A military coup in Brazil would allow the oligarchy to wash its hands from the criminal processes already in course and be part of a new political pact to be formed after the 2018 elections. At the same time, a military takeover would allow the Trump administration to review and negotiate the participation of financial and industrial US interests in the Brazilian territory. As long as the US faces a tremendous shift in public policies, it is reasonable to suppose that Brazil will experience something comparable.

Maybe the military coup will not happen. But it doesn’t mean that the conditions to a military coup are absent. Let’ s see.

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